Polling day's been and gone, then, and I don't think I'm giving anything away if I tell you Labour won, gaining what I am required by law to refer to as "a 'historic' third term". Sorry if I spoilt that for anyone who was trying to avoid finding out the result until they got home and watched it on video...
Anyway, with a reduced majority and an even more reduced popular mandate, the landscape has definitely shifted, which will make for interesting times over the course of the term. Much has been made of how, with a majority of just 66, a small force of Labour left-wing rebels will be all that's needed to remove Tony's majority altogether. This of course ignores the fact that if Blair wants to push through legislation which will deter left-wingers in his party, on issues such as private funding of public services, civil rights, or immigration, he can simply ignore the rebellion of a few dozen Labour MPs and instead compromise his legislation to get the support of up to 197 Conservative MPs.
As was demonstrated by the election swings this year, the political parties have shifted dramatically. Back at the start of the 90s, the Lib Dems sat in the centre ground, and developed a reputation as a safe-haven for past Conservative voters who felt abandoned by their party's relentless push to the right. In this position, they picked up a few rural Tory seats. But then New Labour came along, and suddenly those people found an even better place to go: a social democratic agenda which wouldn't mess with their prosperity. The Lib Dems were left without a purpose. Now, though, as Labour's agenda has offended the principles of more people on the left-leaning, progressive, liberal wing of the party, the Lib Dems have run round the other side of Labour and started picking up support there. But of course, that's not what some of those original Tory/Lib Dem switchers were after at all - and back they go to the Tories, taking a few of those old rural constituencies with them. But the Liberals have more than made up for their loss, with a healthy collection of disenchanted lefties who can't bring themselves to vote Labour any more. The result? Collapsing Labour majorities and a dozen new Liberal MPs - mostly in urban seats like Cardiff Central, Solihull and Birmingham Yardley.
In other words, the swings don't seem to represent any real change in the political position of the people - just a general shuffling of order among the political parties.
The most worrying thing about this election result is that it continues the trend of the last few years of the winning party being lected by fewer votes, than members of the electorate choose not to bother. 39% of the electorate this year didn't turn out, while 21% of it actually voted Labour. That's hardly a ringing mandate for anything. I have a suggestion for how to encourage voters to turn up to the polls, though: consider failing to vote as a vote for not having an MP. Make the old 'don't vote - it only encourages them' gag literally true: if more people don't bother to vote in a constituency than actually vote for any of the candidates, that constituency doesn't get to have an MP. Seems only fair. I think under those circumstances, people might find some really good ways to encourage the apathetic to turn out - perhaps by having policies that appeal to them, or something...